Posts with tag 'Area Information'

Home Prices Rise but Rate of Growth Slowed in January

In January 2022, the median sales price for homes in Ada County was $540,000, an increase of 20.0% compared to January 2021, but a slight decrease of 1.1% from the month before.

While the actual median sales price continues to trend upwards, the rate at which it does so has been slowing in recent months. Throughout 2019, we saw fairly steady price growth, and in December 2020, it jumped above 20% year-over-year, reaching a peak of 45.3% in May 2021.

Since then, price growth has slowed, landing at 20.0% in January 2022 — by no means an insignificant year-over-year change, especially for prospective home sellers, but a welcome reprieve from the higher gains we saw last year, especially for prospective homebuyers.

Home price increases continued to be driven by insufficient supply compared to buyer demand — primarily fueled by population growth, migration trends, and increased purchase power due to historically low mortgage rates. The most recent uptick in demand came from people re-thinking how they live and work as a result of the pandemic, contributing to the competitive conditions that enabled the incredible price growth we've seen in the last year.

The metric used to illustrate the supply vs. demand relationship is Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), which takes the number of homes for sale divided by the average number of sales by month for the preceding 12 months. As of January 2022, Ada County was at just 0.3 months for existing homes and 1.0 month for new construction, meaning, if no additional homes were listed, the supply of homes would run out in a matter of weeks. A balanced market — not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically between 4-6 months of supply.

Even though buyer demand has been outpacing supply, weekly listing activity in 2022 has trended up, indicating that an increasing number of homeowners were ready to sell and cash in on the equity their homes have acquired over the last few years.

Listing activity in 2022 has so far been higher than the same period in 2021, but actual weekly listings were down compared to 2019 and pre-pandemic 2020. We'll be watching to see if future weekly listings of existing homes match or exceed those in previous years.

2021 Market Recap & December Market Report

When summing up the 2021 Ada County housing market, one could easily argue that this past year brought the most fast-paced market we've ever seen, particularly in the first half of the year. The market conditions were incredibly competitive.

The county has faced limited housing inventory for years now, a phenomenon we've detailed in many of our reports. This lack of supply has been insufficient compared to the persistent demand for housing, which has driven up prices and caused a home-buying frenzy earlier this year. We tracked the pace of the market by a few metrics — how quickly homes went under contract, the share of sales that sold over list price, and for how much they sold over list price.

We'll first explore the data for each of these metrics in the existing home sale segment to illustrate just how competitive the market was in 2021.

The Days on Market (DOM) metric measures the time between when a property is listed and when it has an accepted offer. Overall, DOM for existing homes trended down, reaching a historic low of just nine days in May 2021. Since then, the DOM metric has increased and normalized, reaching an average of 30 days in December 2021 — 18 days longer than in December 2020, and more in line with pre-pandemic levels from early 2020.

Not only were existing homes selling at a faster rate, but a larger share of total sales sold for more than their asking price, usually the result of multiple offer situations. The share of homes that sold over list price passed 50.0% in September 2020 and reached a peak of 75.9% in March 2021. By December 2021, it dropped to 22.6%, possibly indicating that list prices have become more aligned with what buyers are willing or able to pay.

But how much over asking did buyers pay in 2021, on average? As the share of over list sales went up, so did the amounts paid over asking. In May 2021, 69.7% of existing homes sold were for over list price, with an average premium of $44,075, the highest we've seen (going back to 2006 based on our existing dataset). The average amount paid over list has dipped since then, coming in at $16,487 in December 2021.

Unsurprisingly, with tight competition for existing homes and so many buyers willing to pay over list, the impact on prices was significant. The median sales price for existing homes was $510,000 in December 2021, up 21.4% compared to a year ago. The year-to-date median sales price was $505,000, a 34.7% increase compared to 2020, and the largest annual gain since we began tracking this data in 2006.

The new construction segment also saw year-over-year price jumps, largely due to increasing costs of land, labor, and materials — as well as the ongoing impact of pandemic-related shutdowns that continue to create delays in increased costs in the global supply chain. (Read more about this in our November report.) In December, the median sales price for new homes was $579,990, a 30.4% increase compared to December 2020. The year-to-date median sales price in 2021 for new construction was $525,000, a 23.1% increase over the previous year.

While homes have continued to sell at higher prices, interestingly, sales have dipped in recent months, and more notably so when comparing data year-over-year. In 2021, there were 10,855 home sales (new and existing combined) a decline of 11.8% compared to 2020, and the lowest number of total annual home sales for the county since 2017.

How can one of the fastest-growing metros in the U.S. with persistent demand for housing have declining home sales? The data provides a few clues.

First, buyers can't buy homes that aren't there, so limited inventory has definitely limited sales. This is especially true at the lower price points where buyer demand is most acute and inventory is hardest to come by. While inventory has ticked up over the last six months, the slim 0.7 Months Supply Inventory in December is still a far cry from the 4-6 months needed for a balanced market.

When year-over-year home sales are broken out by segment, there was a 6.7% decline in existing home sales and a 21.7% decline in new construction sales. One reason there may be fewer new construction sales could be because buyers are having to wait longer to move into their new homes. The average number of days between when a home goes under contract and when it closes was at 106 days in 2021, 30 days longer than in 2020, limiting the number of closings that can take place within the year and possibly leading some new home buyers to opt for an existing home with a quicker move-in date.

Much to the relief of buyers, we saw more normal market times and increases in inventory in the last few months of 2021. However, we're still a long way from a balanced market and we hope more homeowners are able to realize the great values for their properties by listing in the coming months.

Whether you're looking to buy or sell, it's never been more important to work with a REALTOR®. They will help identify potential options for purchase, connect you with a mortgage lender, help craft a competitive offer, and negotiate on your behalf, allowing you to make decisions confidently and quickly to achieve your real estate goals.

Other notable statistics from December 2021:

• The overall median sales price (existing and new construction combined) in December 2021 was $546,000, a new record high. This is likely due to the large share (35.1%) of the typically higher-priced new construction home sales that closed in December.
• There were 582 homes available at the end of the month — 75.8% more than in December 2020.
• As mentioned in the release, the overall (new and existing combined) Months Supply Inventory was 0.7 months. For the existing segment, it was 0.5 months or approximately two weeks.