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2021 Market Recap & December Market Report

When summing up the 2021 Ada County housing market, one could easily argue that this past year brought the most fast-paced market we've ever seen, particularly in the first half of the year. The market conditions were incredibly competitive.

The county has faced limited housing inventory for years now, a phenomenon we've detailed in many of our reports. This lack of supply has been insufficient compared to the persistent demand for housing, which has driven up prices and caused a home-buying frenzy earlier this year. We tracked the pace of the market by a few metrics — how quickly homes went under contract, the share of sales that sold over list price, and for how much they sold over list price.

We'll first explore the data for each of these metrics in the existing home sale segment to illustrate just how competitive the market was in 2021.

The Days on Market (DOM) metric measures the time between when a property is listed and when it has an accepted offer. Overall, DOM for existing homes trended down, reaching a historic low of just nine days in May 2021. Since then, the DOM metric has increased and normalized, reaching an average of 30 days in December 2021 — 18 days longer than in December 2020, and more in line with pre-pandemic levels from early 2020.

Not only were existing homes selling at a faster rate, but a larger share of total sales sold for more than their asking price, usually the result of multiple offer situations. The share of homes that sold over list price passed 50.0% in September 2020 and reached a peak of 75.9% in March 2021. By December 2021, it dropped to 22.6%, possibly indicating that list prices have become more aligned with what buyers are willing or able to pay.

But how much over asking did buyers pay in 2021, on average? As the share of over list sales went up, so did the amounts paid over asking. In May 2021, 69.7% of existing homes sold were for over list price, with an average premium of $44,075, the highest we've seen (going back to 2006 based on our existing dataset). The average amount paid over list has dipped since then, coming in at $16,487 in December 2021.

Unsurprisingly, with tight competition for existing homes and so many buyers willing to pay over list, the impact on prices was significant. The median sales price for existing homes was $510,000 in December 2021, up 21.4% compared to a year ago. The year-to-date median sales price was $505,000, a 34.7% increase compared to 2020, and the largest annual gain since we began tracking this data in 2006.

The new construction segment also saw year-over-year price jumps, largely due to increasing costs of land, labor, and materials — as well as the ongoing impact of pandemic-related shutdowns that continue to create delays in increased costs in the global supply chain. (Read more about this in our November report.) In December, the median sales price for new homes was $579,990, a 30.4% increase compared to December 2020. The year-to-date median sales price in 2021 for new construction was $525,000, a 23.1% increase over the previous year.

While homes have continued to sell at higher prices, interestingly, sales have dipped in recent months, and more notably so when comparing data year-over-year. In 2021, there were 10,855 home sales (new and existing combined) a decline of 11.8% compared to 2020, and the lowest number of total annual home sales for the county since 2017.

How can one of the fastest-growing metros in the U.S. with persistent demand for housing have declining home sales? The data provides a few clues.

First, buyers can't buy homes that aren't there, so limited inventory has definitely limited sales. This is especially true at the lower price points where buyer demand is most acute and inventory is hardest to come by. While inventory has ticked up over the last six months, the slim 0.7 Months Supply Inventory in December is still a far cry from the 4-6 months needed for a balanced market.

When year-over-year home sales are broken out by segment, there was a 6.7% decline in existing home sales and a 21.7% decline in new construction sales. One reason there may be fewer new construction sales could be because buyers are having to wait longer to move into their new homes. The average number of days between when a home goes under contract and when it closes was at 106 days in 2021, 30 days longer than in 2020, limiting the number of closings that can take place within the year and possibly leading some new home buyers to opt for an existing home with a quicker move-in date.

Much to the relief of buyers, we saw more normal market times and increases in inventory in the last few months of 2021. However, we're still a long way from a balanced market and we hope more homeowners are able to realize the great values for their properties by listing in the coming months.

Whether you're looking to buy or sell, it's never been more important to work with a REALTOR®. They will help identify potential options for purchase, connect you with a mortgage lender, help craft a competitive offer, and negotiate on your behalf, allowing you to make decisions confidently and quickly to achieve your real estate goals.

Other notable statistics from December 2021:

• The overall median sales price (existing and new construction combined) in December 2021 was $546,000, a new record high. This is likely due to the large share (35.1%) of the typically higher-priced new construction home sales that closed in December.
• There were 582 homes available at the end of the month — 75.8% more than in December 2020.
• As mentioned in the release, the overall (new and existing combined) Months Supply Inventory was 0.7 months. For the existing segment, it was 0.5 months or approximately two weeks.

PRICES FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION REACH RECORD HIGH

In November 2021, the median sales price for new homes in Ada County was $601,301— passing the $600,000-mark for the first time. This is an increase of 39.8% compared to the same month last year.

This record reflects a variety of market factors that were present prior to the pandemic — namely increasing costs of land, labor, and materials — as well as the ongoing impact of pandemic-related shutdowns that continue to create delays in increased costs in the global supply chain. (A recent article from the National Association of Home Builders provides more context on this, and includes comments from a local custom home builder, Steve Martinez of Tradewinds.)

Speaking with Christine Comstock, Managing Associate Broker for CBH Homes, she echoed these sentiments, particularly on the impact of materials on the final price of a new home: "Lumber is a constant moving commodity. We work hard to keep our pricing in check in the midst of a fluctuating market. We are averaging a 24% increase year over year."

The external pressures causing delivery delays are also beginning to impact the number of sales for new homes, which were down 32.2% year-to-date compared to last year.

 Also affecting new construction sales is the uptick in existing inventory over the past six months. There were 426 existing homes available for purchase at the end of the month, an increase of 217.9% compared to November 2020.

There is a strong correlation between the existing inventory and new construction pending sales (properties under contract with an accepted offer that should close within 30-90 days). Looking at activity since January 2019, we have seen new construction pending sales go up when existing inventory dips, then begin to slip as existing inventory increases. 

You'll always have a certain number of buyers in the market that are strictly looking for a new home, but existing homes are often the starting point for many buyers looking for something that's move-in ready. So as existing home inventory has been limited, some buyers shifted to the new construction market. Then as delays in delivery occurred, and as more existing inventory is becoming available, some are reverting back to the resale market. This ebb and flow may seem obvious, but the big takeaway is that the demand for homes remains strong in our area, and motivated buyers continue to make purchasing decisions based on what's available.

The strong and consistent demand for housing is apparent when examining the Months Supply Inventory (MSI) metric, which takes the number of homes for sale divided by the average number of sales by month for the preceding 12 months. As of November 2021, Ada County was at just 0.9 months for existing homes and 1.5 months for new construction. This means, if no additional homes were listed, the supply of homes for sale would run out in less than two months. A balanced market — not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically between 4-6 months of supply.

Whether you're considering a new home or existing property, your REALTOR® is there to guide you through every step of your home buying journey. Once a seller or builder has accepted your offer, the sale goes "pending" and there are a number of steps that need to take place before you reach the closing table. From appraisals and inspections to negotiations and final paperwork, a REALTOR® is there to make sure your interests are being represented throughout every step in the process.

Other notable statistics from November 2021:

• The median sales price for existing homes was $510,000, up 19.7% year-over-year and a slight 1.9% drop from October.
• Existing homes were spending an average of 25 days on the market before going under contract, 92.3% longer than the 13 days we saw a year ago.
• Total sales were down 7.8% from a year ago, primarily from delays in the new construction segment, as existing sales were up 3.5%. More existing inventory resulted in more existing home sales.

In each of our reports in 2021, BRR is focusing on the various phases of a real estate transaction to help consumers be prepared before, during, and after a real estate transaction, showing them what their REALTOR® will be doing for them along every step, and the key data points they can look for to make sense of the market.

PRICES DROP SLIGHTLY AS ADA COUNTY HOUSING MARKET SLOWS ITS RAPID PACE

The median sales price for homes in Ada County was $533,950 in October, a slight 0.2% decrease from the September median sales price of $534,950. Inventory was up 158.5% year-over-year, with 1,145 homes available for purchase at the end of October.

We're starting to see a shift in our market. While homes still sold for near record highs for the last few months, we haven't seen the same month-over-month price jumps and properties aren't flying off the market quite as fast as they were this spring and summer.

Generally speaking, the more competitive the market, the faster properties have an offer accepted and go under contract, as measured by the Days on Market (DOM) metric. Overall, DOM for existing home sales has trended down for the last five years, with the fastest DOM at nine days in May 2021. Since then, the DOM metric has inched up, reaching an average of 21 days in October 2021 — eight days longer than in October 2020.

As competition for homes increased, more buyers were willing to pay over list price. This became the primary factor driving up the median sales price from October 2020 through July 2021, when more than half of all home sales were sold for over list price. Since July 2021, the share has dropped significantly, making up 26.1% of all home sales in October 2021.

Additionally, price reductions on listed existing homes have become more common since June 2021. Weekly price reductions averaged less than one a week between January 1–June 6, and nearly eight a week from June 7–November 1. The $500,000-749,999 price range had the largest share of price reductions, making up nearly half of all adjustments year-to-date.

If existing homes are staying on the market longer, price reductions are becoming more common, and the majority of buyers are no longer paying over list price, why haven't we seen a major drop in the median sales price?

One reason is that list prices have also gone up. Typically, homes for sale are priced based on comparable properties that have recently sold. As sales prices have risen, so have the comparables, or "comps." These higher sales prices have may have also inspired more homeowners to sell, as existing inventory has also been trending up, with 703 available properties for sale at the end of October, an increase of more than 300% year-over-year.

The average list price of existing homes reached the $550,000-mark in June and remained above that level through the competitive summer months. Higher list prices were supported by the comparable sales in the weeks and months prior, but sale prices are ultimately determined by what buyers are willing to pay. As list prices shifted up in the latter part of the year, buyers were less likely to have to pay over asking to secure the property.

As the market adjusts to buyer's expectations and needs, we may continue to see price reductions or even a drop in the average list price for existing homes. If list prices go down, it doesn't necessarily mean sales prices will also drop. The median sales price for existing homes has held relatively steady, as has buyer demand. Homes are still selling at near record highs, but the rise in list prices may have eliminated some of the multiple offer situations and competition we saw occurring earlier this year.

This fall is still proving to be a great time for homeowners to capitalize on the current home prices. For those who are considering selling, we recommend talking to a REALTOR® about the different factors at play within our market and how they may affect different situations.

In each of our reports in 2021, BRR is focusing on the various phases of a real estate transaction to help consumers be prepared before, during, and after a real estate transaction, showing them what their REALTOR® will be doing for them along every step, and the key data points they can look for to make sense of the market.